Normally, when evaluating NHL transactions this time of year, the math is rather simple: Is Player X worth Y amount of dollars over Z number of years?
Not so with the Penguins’ acquisition of proven sniper Phil Kessel from Toronto. In this case, we have more complicated calculus to consider, what with six players and three conditional draft picks changing hands, plus the fact that the Maple Leafs will retain 15 percent of Kessel’s contract.
But let’s forget all of that for now and look at what we can expect the 27-year-old Kessel to produce while wearing a Penguins crest, presumably over the next seven seasons:
• Examining his long-term numbers, the thought of No. 81 patrolling the wing is tantalizing, even though 2014-15 was perhaps Kessel’s worst of nine seasons in the NHL. Unlike in previous years, Kessel appeared to be dragged under by Toronto’s latest sinking ship. His 30 even-strength points were his fewest since he was a 19-year-old in Boston. His shooting percentage of 7.5 was his lowest. He had fewer than 18 minutes of ice time per game for the first time with the Leafs.
What about the underlying data, though?
First of all, Kessel hasn’t had much to work with since the turn of the decade. A glance at the standings will tell you that, but to further clarify, five consecutive Toronto teams have allowed more shot attempts than they’ve generated, and all but the 2013 shortened-season team has been outscored over that span. In 2014-15, the Leafs ranked 27th in the NHL in Corsi For percentage, which is the differential of all shot attempts taken at even strength.
Last season marked just the second time in his career Kessel posted a negative Corsi Relative; that is, his team did better generating shots with him off the ice than on it. But last season’s minus-0.8 Corsi Relative looks like an aberration once we consider Kessel’s body of work. Although he hasn’t been a positive possession player since 2009-10, he’s been a positive player in relation to his teammates seven times, including plus-2.1 in 2013-14 and plus-3.3 during the aforementioned lockout season, helping the Leafs to a rare playoff berth.
• These results are more impressive when considering that Kessel was tethered to center Tyler Bozak for 73 percent of his even-strength minutes since 2013. Because of their symbiotic relationship, it’s difficult to tease out Bozak’s influence completely, but according to Puckalytics.com, he was a third-line caliber player in terms of Corsi For percentage.
Kessel will have much better support from his centers in Pittsburgh, whether the man in the middle ends up being Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin. With the Penguins, it might feel like a completely different sport for him.
• Kessel owns an absolutely deadly wrist shot. That talent has allowed him to net 151 goals over the past six seasons, the fourth-highest total in the league, in addition to the fourth-most shot attempts. Moreover, his presence should diversify the Penguins’ attack because he can score from almost anywhere in the offensive zone.
Take a look at these Hextally charts from WAR-on-ice.com, compiled from shot-location data since the start of 2013-14. Click the images to enlarge:
The first chart is Crosby’s and the second Kessel’s, with the shaded hexagons representing areas from which the players scored. On the left side, the darker the hexagon, the better the player’s success from that spot. Crosby’s hexagons are clustered primarily around the opponents’ goal, while Kessel’s are more spread out, especially atop the faceoff circles. Not even James Neal can match Kessel’s range. Since he doesn’t load up on point-blank chances, it’s even more striking that Kessel has been able to maintain a career shooting percentage of 10.8 in an era that sees goalies stop more than 91 percent of pucks.
• Beyond the vagaries of line chemistry and the politics of the power play, one possible concern is how Kessel will handle the less-hectic pace at which his new team skates. Under Mike Johnston, the average Penguins game contained 105.6 total shot attempts, while Toronto was at or above 112 in all six of Kessel’s seasons there.
Much of that difference can be explained by Toronto’s lax defending this decade, but the question remains if the rush-hungry Kessel will be able to thrive in a more controlled, possession-oriented system. Logic would dictate that he’ll be fine eventually, but there probably will be an adjustment period.
Although possession and shot volume is critical, the team that can convert its chances is king in a low-scoring league. The Penguins notably struggled with finishing last season, shooting 7.5 percent to tie for the worst rate of the Crosby-Malkin era.
With Kessel on board, it’s unlikely that problem will continue.
Phil Kessel shoots through the Canadiens' Nathan Beaulieu during an April game in Toronto. -- GETTY
July 2, 2015
Matt’s Stats: Kessel’s rifle has the range
by Matt Gajtka • Features • Matt's Stats, Penguins
Normally, when evaluating NHL transactions this time of year, the math is rather simple: Is Player X worth Y amount of dollars over Z number of years?
Not so with the Penguins’ acquisition of proven sniper Phil Kessel from Toronto. In this case, we have more complicated calculus to consider, what with six players and three conditional draft picks changing hands, plus the fact that the Maple Leafs will retain 15 percent of Kessel’s contract.
But let’s forget all of that for now and look at what we can expect the 27-year-old Kessel to produce while wearing a Penguins crest, presumably over the next seven seasons:
• Examining his long-term numbers, the thought of No. 81 patrolling the wing is tantalizing, even though 2014-15 was perhaps Kessel’s worst of nine seasons in the NHL. Unlike in previous years, Kessel appeared to be dragged under by Toronto’s latest sinking ship. His 30 even-strength points were his fewest since he was a 19-year-old in Boston. His shooting percentage of 7.5 was his lowest. He had fewer than 18 minutes of ice time per game for the first time with the Leafs.
What about the underlying data, though?
First of all, Kessel hasn’t had much to work with since the turn of the decade. A glance at the standings will tell you that, but to further clarify, five consecutive Toronto teams have allowed more shot attempts than they’ve generated, and all but the 2013 shortened-season team has been outscored over that span. In 2014-15, the Leafs ranked 27th in the NHL in Corsi For percentage, which is the differential of all shot attempts taken at even strength.
Last season marked just the second time in his career Kessel posted a negative Corsi Relative; that is, his team did better generating shots with him off the ice than on it. But last season’s minus-0.8 Corsi Relative looks like an aberration once we consider Kessel’s body of work. Although he hasn’t been a positive possession player since 2009-10, he’s been a positive player in relation to his teammates seven times, including plus-2.1 in 2013-14 and plus-3.3 during the aforementioned lockout season, helping the Leafs to a rare playoff berth.
• These results are more impressive when considering that Kessel was tethered to center Tyler Bozak for 73 percent of his even-strength minutes since 2013. Because of their symbiotic relationship, it’s difficult to tease out Bozak’s influence completely, but according to Puckalytics.com, he was a third-line caliber player in terms of Corsi For percentage.
Kessel will have much better support from his centers in Pittsburgh, whether the man in the middle ends up being Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin. With the Penguins, it might feel like a completely different sport for him.
• Kessel owns an absolutely deadly wrist shot. That talent has allowed him to net 151 goals over the past six seasons, the fourth-highest total in the league, in addition to the fourth-most shot attempts. Moreover, his presence should diversify the Penguins’ attack because he can score from almost anywhere in the offensive zone.
Take a look at these Hextally charts from WAR-on-ice.com, compiled from shot-location data since the start of 2013-14. Click the images to enlarge:
The first chart is Crosby’s and the second Kessel’s, with the shaded hexagons representing areas from which the players scored. On the left side, the darker the hexagon, the better the player’s success from that spot. Crosby’s hexagons are clustered primarily around the opponents’ goal, while Kessel’s are more spread out, especially atop the faceoff circles. Not even James Neal can match Kessel’s range. Since he doesn’t load up on point-blank chances, it’s even more striking that Kessel has been able to maintain a career shooting percentage of 10.8 in an era that sees goalies stop more than 91 percent of pucks.
• Beyond the vagaries of line chemistry and the politics of the power play, one possible concern is how Kessel will handle the less-hectic pace at which his new team skates. Under Mike Johnston, the average Penguins game contained 105.6 total shot attempts, while Toronto was at or above 112 in all six of Kessel’s seasons there.
Much of that difference can be explained by Toronto’s lax defending this decade, but the question remains if the rush-hungry Kessel will be able to thrive in a more controlled, possession-oriented system. Logic would dictate that he’ll be fine eventually, but there probably will be an adjustment period.
Although possession and shot volume is critical, the team that can convert its chances is king in a low-scoring league. The Penguins notably struggled with finishing last season, shooting 7.5 percent to tie for the worst rate of the Crosby-Malkin era.
With Kessel on board, it’s unlikely that problem will continue.