Still running on adrenaline from last night’s 15-inning trek at PNC Park. Hope the buzz doesn’t wear off before I finish writing these responses … I’m just glad Josh has tonight’s Pirates coverage.
Zack Hough: How comfortable are you with the Pirates’ rotation down the stretch and do you think they’re using their bullpen too much?
MG: This question came in less than 10 minutes after last night’s game ended, and I’m guessing it was further fueled by recent events on the North Side and diamonds elsewhere. In 15 August games, Pirates starters have completed seven innings just twice — Charlie Morton on Aug. 2 at Cincinnati and Francisco Liriano last night.
On the surface, this is concerning, mostly because the Pirates are in the midst of playing on 20 consecutive days. I don’t care how effective or deep a bullpen is, that’ll wear on any relief staff if you don’t get a starting pitcher to occasionally last into the eighth or (gasp) the ninth.
Extra innings don’t help the cause either. Even though Pirates starters haven’t been knocked out extremely early this month, guys like Arquimedes Caminero and Joe Blanton have been stretched to their limits because of all the additional frames that are showing up at the back ends of games.
However, the traditional paradigm is shifting. As we saw with the Royals last year — and, really, the Pirates since 2013 — the final three or four innings are increasingly the exclusive domain of hard-throwing relievers. With quality bullpen arms easier to come by these days, a starter might just have to go five or six and a team will be just fine.
To sum up: The Pirates’ rotation is no longer the team’s biggest strength, but it may not have to be for them to continue winning. My rotation comfort level is probably a 7 out of 10, considering the way the bullpen is performing.
____________________
Sean Hooper: Everyone always rags on Clint Hurdle, Bob Nutting and Neal Huntington, when in fact they turned our team around. Do you think Hurdle and Huntington have done enough to get this team over the hump? I truly believe they can and will get us there.
MG: First of all, I’m assuming that ‘over the hump’ means a World Series championship? If so, that’s a high standard to judge success, since only one of 30 teams reaches the mountaintop each year.
I do, however, think it’s reasonable to expect a postseason series victory at some point, considering the talent on this club. As Kent Tekulve sometimes reminds us on Pirates television broadcasts, the drought in that area is approaching 40 years.
Your question about Hurdle and Huntington is germane, but I feel it’s rather obvious how well they and the rest of their staff have done to help lift this franchise back into the championship conversation. If the standings finish the way they are today, only the Pirates, Cardinals and Dodgers will have made the MLB postseason three years in a row. (The Pirates would have the same streak under the old single-wild card setup, too, assuming they stay ahead of the Cubs this year.)
For me, that’s pretty remarkable after not just 20 straight losing seasons, but also the emotional scars of back-to-back late-season collapses prior to the 2013 breakthrough. I understand and endorse the idea that pennants and World Series titles are the ultimate goals. Still, some perspective is needed for those who might want a major change in leadership.
____________________
erikhume: After last night’s ‘woo-ing’ debacle and with it being an on-and-off problem over the past couple years, is there any indication the Pirates might do something about it? I have to think that throwing a few people out of the game would bring it under control.
MG: This was a point of discussion in the press box last night, so I’m glad you brought it up.
I’m all for personal expression, but there is a point where that type of thing lapses over into nuisance territory. I think the most obvious example of this is profanity, but the type of Ric Flair impersonators we hear occasionally at PNC Park and Consol Energy Center can be just as bothersome to other paying customers.
I’m not sure throwing people out is necessary, though. I believe in giving someone a warning first, especially in gray areas like this. To be clear, this is a very subjective area. What I think is a complete jerk move may be the most hilarious thing to someone else. I’d like to see teams err on the side of caution.
Bottom line: It’s on you to complain about ‘woo’-ing or whatever to a team representative if you feel strongly enough. It’s very rare to see an usher reprimand someone without prompting from another customer.
Oh, and while we’re talking fan behavior, please wait until the at-bat is over (or the whistle in hockey and football) to walk to and from your seats. And stop doing the wave unless the game’s a complete blowout!
____________________
kliuch: I have a football stats question: Do you think that rushing yards (and yards per carry) are a true indicator of a running back’s performance? A back is massively dependent on two huge factors — offensive line performance and game situation.
MG: We have to get at least one analytics question per week! Keep asking them … I saw some good ones in the batch this week but I wanted to make sure to touch upon football this time.
I don’t think that raw yards or yards per carry captures individual performance as much as we would like. Football is troublesome in this way, because it’s so highly specialized in terms of position groups, and so much of one’s success depends on whether one’s teammates did their jobs well.
I tried to mix the traditional stats with some of the more advanced metrics in my piece on Le’Veon Bell last month. This is a good approach with any sport. The more context you can find for a performance, the more accurate the assessment, generally speaking.
For football in particular, I like Football Outsiders’ running back Success Rate stat, which gives you an idea of which players delivered above-average performance consistently from play to play. It’s adjusted for down and distance, so getting eight yards on third and 12 isn’t as valued as getting eight on second and 4. Pro Football Focus also breaks down more granular data like run lengths and yards after contact. All are helpful in painting a more complete picture.
____________________
BJC: I’m not much of a soccer fan, but have been caught up in the World Cup hype with the U.S. Women’s National Team. That led to a conversation with my wife: Is soccer a sport where the women’s team is “more popular” than the men’s? (Strictly speaking about national teams, not pro leagues.)
MG: Funny you should mention that, because I still have my press notes on hand from Sunday’s USWNT ‘Victory Tour’ match against Costa Rica. The World Cup final victory over Japan last month was the most-watched soccer match in our country’s history, men or women, with an average of 25.4 million TV viewers. The previous record was 18.2 million for the USMNT’s World Cup group stage match against Portugal last year.
By that admittedly crude measure, the women’s team surpassed the guys this summer, although I expect that soccer TV ratings and general popularity will continue to increase in this country as long as the national programs maintain a reasonable level of excellence. By the time the next men’s World Cup rolls around in 2018, the men could be poised to leap ahead.
But everyone loves a winning team, especially when it represents our country. For that reason, in addition to their crossover appeal with the more “casual” sports fans who faithfully follow the Olympics — where most of these same players also will compete — I believe the women will maintain a slight edge over the men for the time being.
(By the way, thanks for all the positive feedback on our coverage of Meghan Klingenberg and the USWNT last weekend at Heinz Field. I had no idea how it would be received, but that was secondary to simply getting to report on an international sporting event. It was a treat.)
August 19, 2015
Five Qs at 5: Rotation, ‘Woo’ birds, USWNT
65by Matt Gajtka • Five Qs at 5 • Pirates, Steelers
Still running on adrenaline from last night’s 15-inning trek at PNC Park. Hope the buzz doesn’t wear off before I finish writing these responses … I’m just glad Josh has tonight’s Pirates coverage.
Zack Hough: How comfortable are you with the Pirates’ rotation down the stretch and do you think they’re using their bullpen too much?
MG: This question came in less than 10 minutes after last night’s game ended, and I’m guessing it was further fueled by recent events on the North Side and diamonds elsewhere. In 15 August games, Pirates starters have completed seven innings just twice — Charlie Morton on Aug. 2 at Cincinnati and Francisco Liriano last night.
On the surface, this is concerning, mostly because the Pirates are in the midst of playing on 20 consecutive days. I don’t care how effective or deep a bullpen is, that’ll wear on any relief staff if you don’t get a starting pitcher to occasionally last into the eighth or (gasp) the ninth.
Extra innings don’t help the cause either. Even though Pirates starters haven’t been knocked out extremely early this month, guys like Arquimedes Caminero and Joe Blanton have been stretched to their limits because of all the additional frames that are showing up at the back ends of games.
However, the traditional paradigm is shifting. As we saw with the Royals last year — and, really, the Pirates since 2013 — the final three or four innings are increasingly the exclusive domain of hard-throwing relievers. With quality bullpen arms easier to come by these days, a starter might just have to go five or six and a team will be just fine.
To sum up: The Pirates’ rotation is no longer the team’s biggest strength, but it may not have to be for them to continue winning. My rotation comfort level is probably a 7 out of 10, considering the way the bullpen is performing.
____________________
Sean Hooper: Everyone always rags on Clint Hurdle, Bob Nutting and Neal Huntington, when in fact they turned our team around. Do you think Hurdle and Huntington have done enough to get this team over the hump? I truly believe they can and will get us there.
MG: First of all, I’m assuming that ‘over the hump’ means a World Series championship? If so, that’s a high standard to judge success, since only one of 30 teams reaches the mountaintop each year.
I do, however, think it’s reasonable to expect a postseason series victory at some point, considering the talent on this club. As Kent Tekulve sometimes reminds us on Pirates television broadcasts, the drought in that area is approaching 40 years.
Your question about Hurdle and Huntington is germane, but I feel it’s rather obvious how well they and the rest of their staff have done to help lift this franchise back into the championship conversation. If the standings finish the way they are today, only the Pirates, Cardinals and Dodgers will have made the MLB postseason three years in a row. (The Pirates would have the same streak under the old single-wild card setup, too, assuming they stay ahead of the Cubs this year.)
For me, that’s pretty remarkable after not just 20 straight losing seasons, but also the emotional scars of back-to-back late-season collapses prior to the 2013 breakthrough. I understand and endorse the idea that pennants and World Series titles are the ultimate goals. Still, some perspective is needed for those who might want a major change in leadership.
____________________
erikhume: After last night’s ‘woo-ing’ debacle and with it being an on-and-off problem over the past couple years, is there any indication the Pirates might do something about it? I have to think that throwing a few people out of the game would bring it under control.
MG: This was a point of discussion in the press box last night, so I’m glad you brought it up.
I’m all for personal expression, but there is a point where that type of thing lapses over into nuisance territory. I think the most obvious example of this is profanity, but the type of Ric Flair impersonators we hear occasionally at PNC Park and Consol Energy Center can be just as bothersome to other paying customers.
I’m not sure throwing people out is necessary, though. I believe in giving someone a warning first, especially in gray areas like this. To be clear, this is a very subjective area. What I think is a complete jerk move may be the most hilarious thing to someone else. I’d like to see teams err on the side of caution.
Bottom line: It’s on you to complain about ‘woo’-ing or whatever to a team representative if you feel strongly enough. It’s very rare to see an usher reprimand someone without prompting from another customer.
Oh, and while we’re talking fan behavior, please wait until the at-bat is over (or the whistle in hockey and football) to walk to and from your seats. And stop doing the wave unless the game’s a complete blowout!
____________________
kliuch: I have a football stats question: Do you think that rushing yards (and yards per carry) are a true indicator of a running back’s performance? A back is massively dependent on two huge factors — offensive line performance and game situation.
MG: We have to get at least one analytics question per week! Keep asking them … I saw some good ones in the batch this week but I wanted to make sure to touch upon football this time.
I don’t think that raw yards or yards per carry captures individual performance as much as we would like. Football is troublesome in this way, because it’s so highly specialized in terms of position groups, and so much of one’s success depends on whether one’s teammates did their jobs well.
I tried to mix the traditional stats with some of the more advanced metrics in my piece on Le’Veon Bell last month. This is a good approach with any sport. The more context you can find for a performance, the more accurate the assessment, generally speaking.
For football in particular, I like Football Outsiders’ running back Success Rate stat, which gives you an idea of which players delivered above-average performance consistently from play to play. It’s adjusted for down and distance, so getting eight yards on third and 12 isn’t as valued as getting eight on second and 4. Pro Football Focus also breaks down more granular data like run lengths and yards after contact. All are helpful in painting a more complete picture.
____________________
BJC: I’m not much of a soccer fan, but have been caught up in the World Cup hype with the U.S. Women’s National Team. That led to a conversation with my wife: Is soccer a sport where the women’s team is “more popular” than the men’s? (Strictly speaking about national teams, not pro leagues.)
MG: Funny you should mention that, because I still have my press notes on hand from Sunday’s USWNT ‘Victory Tour’ match against Costa Rica. The World Cup final victory over Japan last month was the most-watched soccer match in our country’s history, men or women, with an average of 25.4 million TV viewers. The previous record was 18.2 million for the USMNT’s World Cup group stage match against Portugal last year.
By that admittedly crude measure, the women’s team surpassed the guys this summer, although I expect that soccer TV ratings and general popularity will continue to increase in this country as long as the national programs maintain a reasonable level of excellence. By the time the next men’s World Cup rolls around in 2018, the men could be poised to leap ahead.
But everyone loves a winning team, especially when it represents our country. For that reason, in addition to their crossover appeal with the more “casual” sports fans who faithfully follow the Olympics — where most of these same players also will compete — I believe the women will maintain a slight edge over the men for the time being.
(By the way, thanks for all the positive feedback on our coverage of Meghan Klingenberg and the USWNT last weekend at Heinz Field. I had no idea how it would be received, but that was secondary to simply getting to report on an international sporting event. It was a treat.)