With the exception of last week’s offensive bonanza in Detroit, the Pirates have not often resembled the balanced team they were anticipated to be this season.
In 2013, elite run prevention boosted the franchise to 94 regular-season wins and a long-awaited postseason trip, and this year’s Pirates are on a similar track. They rank 17th in Major League Baseball in runs scored per game at 4.01 while permitting an average of 3.32 runs against, second-best in the majors.
Record-wise, there’s not much for the Pirates to complain about. They own one of MLB’s top three winning percentages with the All-Star break less than a week away. Of course, the one team they trail in the National League also happens to be in their division, so the offensive dropoff from a promising 2014 is rendered in sharp relief.
How far has the offense fallen from last year?
Here are some traditional and advanced metrics to help tell the tale, along with how the numbers stack up against league competition:
The Pirates’ batting average has essentially held steady, but a notable sag in on-base percentage and slugging has dropped their output by 0.2 runs per game. That doesn’t sound like much, but in the current depressed scoring environment, it downgrades the offense from top tier to league average.
Individually, almost every regular is producing less than in 2014. Even Andrew McCutchen, who has rebounded beautifully from an abysmal April, is down in every rate category, which has dropped his wRC+ from a career-high 168 last year to 149.*
*wRC stands for Weighted Runs Created, which attempts to quantify a player’s total offensive value. The ‘+’ indicates that the raw number is scaled so that 100 represents league average. I prefer wRC over OPS (OBP plus SLG) because wRC gives additional weight to on-base percentage, which is more impactful than slugging when it comes to scoring runs.
Acoording to wRC+, Josh Harrison (42 points down), Jordy Mercer (21), Neil Walker (20), Starling Marte (12) and Gregory Polanco (eight) are all off last year’s pace. The focus of this piece is on returners, but Francisco Cervelli’s 123 wRC+ is 17 points behind Russell Martin’s otherworldly 2014 output.
Before we dissect individually, let’s exempt three players from further scrutiny: McCutchen has been himself for two months, and it’s difficult to criticize a player producing nearly 50 percent better than league average. Also, Marte’s fall isn’t terribly steep – I have to draw the line somewhere – and I’m reserving judgment on Polanco due to his relatively short track record.
(Pedro Alvarez, whose wRC+ of 107 is three points better than last year, doesn’t technically qualify for this list, although he’s still short of his 112 wRC+ in 2013.)
Jung Ho Kang has offered the offense a boost, but enough to make up for stragglers? — GETTY
So among the trio of Harrison, Mercer and Walker, what can their underlying rates tell us about their year-to-year declines?
• For the injured Harrison, now out for seven weeks after wrist surgery Wednesday, it’s not a shock that he was struggling to replicate his 2014 breakout. But the Pirates were counting on much more. Harrison’s line-drive rate of 23 percent has remained constant, but he’s hitting more grounders, fewer fly balls, and his pull rate is down nearly 10 percent. It’s no wonder his isolated power of .105 is his lowest since 2011, his rookie year. Also, Harrison has always been a free swinger, but he’s now offering at 41 percent of pitches outside the strike zone, a career high.
• Mercer has been the Pirates’ least productive regular at the plate (70 wRC+), even though he’s boosted that by six points in the past week. He is seeing his lowest career rate of four-seam fastballs (12.7 percent), with pitchers instead throwing more sinkers and changeups. His hard-hit rate is up from 2014, although his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is stable. Mercer’s isolated power has cratered to a career low (.077), but his home-run-per-fly ball rate of 2.9 percent is so far below the normal MLB range (8-12%) that we should expect a rebound.
• Walker has been hitting so well lately that he may yet finish with an overall improvement from last year, but his peripherals bear exploration, anyway. Interestingly, his hard-hit rate is up four points from last year, but his pull rate is down and his ground-ball rate is up, dropping his isolated power (.133) down nearly 60 points from last year. According to PITCHf/x, Walker has faced nearly double the amount of sinking fastballs than he did last year, jumping from 7 to 12 percent, so perhaps that’s the reason for his altered batted-ball profile.
Some of this data raises more questions: Are injuries to blame? What about mechanics?
However, we can draw a few conclusions: The declines of Harrison, Mercer and Walker are mostly legitimate and largely tied to decreased power. They are being pitched differently – mostly softer and lower in the zone – and their batted balls are going to different places.
It’s often said that baseball is a game of adjustments. Some Pirates have begun to push back, but it’s fair to say that the offense as a whole may not be up to matching its 2014 results.
July 9, 2015
Matt’s Stats: What pulled the Pirates’ plug?
by Matt Gajtka • Features • Matt's Stats, Pirates
With the exception of last week’s offensive bonanza in Detroit, the Pirates have not often resembled the balanced team they were anticipated to be this season.
In 2013, elite run prevention boosted the franchise to 94 regular-season wins and a long-awaited postseason trip, and this year’s Pirates are on a similar track. They rank 17th in Major League Baseball in runs scored per game at 4.01 while permitting an average of 3.32 runs against, second-best in the majors.
Record-wise, there’s not much for the Pirates to complain about. They own one of MLB’s top three winning percentages with the All-Star break less than a week away. Of course, the one team they trail in the National League also happens to be in their division, so the offensive dropoff from a promising 2014 is rendered in sharp relief.
How far has the offense fallen from last year?
Here are some traditional and advanced metrics to help tell the tale, along with how the numbers stack up against league competition:
The Pirates’ batting average has essentially held steady, but a notable sag in on-base percentage and slugging has dropped their output by 0.2 runs per game. That doesn’t sound like much, but in the current depressed scoring environment, it downgrades the offense from top tier to league average.
Individually, almost every regular is producing less than in 2014. Even Andrew McCutchen, who has rebounded beautifully from an abysmal April, is down in every rate category, which has dropped his wRC+ from a career-high 168 last year to 149.*
*wRC stands for Weighted Runs Created, which attempts to quantify a player’s total offensive value. The ‘+’ indicates that the raw number is scaled so that 100 represents league average. I prefer wRC over OPS (OBP plus SLG) because wRC gives additional weight to on-base percentage, which is more impactful than slugging when it comes to scoring runs.
Acoording to wRC+, Josh Harrison (42 points down), Jordy Mercer (21), Neil Walker (20), Starling Marte (12) and Gregory Polanco (eight) are all off last year’s pace. The focus of this piece is on returners, but Francisco Cervelli’s 123 wRC+ is 17 points behind Russell Martin’s otherworldly 2014 output.
Before we dissect individually, let’s exempt three players from further scrutiny: McCutchen has been himself for two months, and it’s difficult to criticize a player producing nearly 50 percent better than league average. Also, Marte’s fall isn’t terribly steep – I have to draw the line somewhere – and I’m reserving judgment on Polanco due to his relatively short track record.
(Pedro Alvarez, whose wRC+ of 107 is three points better than last year, doesn’t technically qualify for this list, although he’s still short of his 112 wRC+ in 2013.)
Jung Ho Kang has offered the offense a boost, but enough to make up for stragglers? — GETTY
So among the trio of Harrison, Mercer and Walker, what can their underlying rates tell us about their year-to-year declines?
• For the injured Harrison, now out for seven weeks after wrist surgery Wednesday, it’s not a shock that he was struggling to replicate his 2014 breakout. But the Pirates were counting on much more. Harrison’s line-drive rate of 23 percent has remained constant, but he’s hitting more grounders, fewer fly balls, and his pull rate is down nearly 10 percent. It’s no wonder his isolated power of .105 is his lowest since 2011, his rookie year. Also, Harrison has always been a free swinger, but he’s now offering at 41 percent of pitches outside the strike zone, a career high.
• Mercer has been the Pirates’ least productive regular at the plate (70 wRC+), even though he’s boosted that by six points in the past week. He is seeing his lowest career rate of four-seam fastballs (12.7 percent), with pitchers instead throwing more sinkers and changeups. His hard-hit rate is up from 2014, although his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is stable. Mercer’s isolated power has cratered to a career low (.077), but his home-run-per-fly ball rate of 2.9 percent is so far below the normal MLB range (8-12%) that we should expect a rebound.
• Walker has been hitting so well lately that he may yet finish with an overall improvement from last year, but his peripherals bear exploration, anyway. Interestingly, his hard-hit rate is up four points from last year, but his pull rate is down and his ground-ball rate is up, dropping his isolated power (.133) down nearly 60 points from last year. According to PITCHf/x, Walker has faced nearly double the amount of sinking fastballs than he did last year, jumping from 7 to 12 percent, so perhaps that’s the reason for his altered batted-ball profile.
Some of this data raises more questions: Are injuries to blame? What about mechanics?
However, we can draw a few conclusions: The declines of Harrison, Mercer and Walker are mostly legitimate and largely tied to decreased power. They are being pitched differently – mostly softer and lower in the zone – and their batted balls are going to different places.
It’s often said that baseball is a game of adjustments. Some Pirates have begun to push back, but it’s fair to say that the offense as a whole may not be up to matching its 2014 results.