Edmonton fans show displeasure with their perpetually last-place team at a recent game. — GETTY
BY DEJAN KOVACEVIC
EDMONTON, Alberta — Stay away, Connor McDavid. Stay far, far away.
Because this is the place, young man, where fine young hockey players such as yourself come not to thrive but, rather, to throw away all their promise. It’s where first (overall draft pick) leads directly to worst (team in the NHL). It’s where, in three consecutive summers, the consensus premier amateur on the face of the globe arrived with all kinds of fanfare, but still the city awaits its first playoff game in eight excruciating years.
A bit harsh?
Maybe.
But here, look for yourself at the past drafting decade of these most moribund Edmonton Oilers, the Penguins’ opponent here tonight at Rexall Place, and attempt to explain being a combined 80 games under .500 the past six seasons, including 14-28-9 in the current one:
Amazing, isn’t it?
And in all seriousness, why wouldn’t McDavid, the wunderkind tearing up the Ontario Hockey League for our commonwealth’s Erie Otters and the near-unanimous choice to go No. 1 in the next draft, pull an Eric Lindros or John Elway to avoid suffering the same fate?
Go to Buffalo, kid. There’s hope there, with stable ownership and a recently upgraded front office and Ted Nolan behind the bench.
Heck, go to Carolina, Columbus or even New Jersey, all of whom could use a franchise scoring stud.
Just stay away from here, no matter which lottery ball turns up this summer.
Who could blame him?
I mean, Jordan Eberle, class of 2008, is a fine player. He has 15 goals this season, and he once topped out at 34. He’s only 24, so he can still improve.
Taylor Hall, who began the string of first overall selections, is a fine player, too. He’s more of a playmaker and registered a career-high 53 assists last season. That’s way down to 19 now, but he’s only 23, so he can still improve.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, next in the lineage, has come out of his shell with 39 points and an All-Star berth this season. He’s never topped 56 points, but he’s only 21, so he can still improve.
Nail Yakupov, the charming kid who went first at the Pittsburgh draft in 2012, had 17 goals as a rookie but hasn’t totaled that many in the two years since and has been a defensive disaster. But he’s only 21, so … oh, you know.
That’s how it goes here in the endless Edmonton cycle: It’s forever the future.
And the only reason I’m spelling all this out, graphics and all, is so that the greater hockey world can once and for all bury the ridiculous myth that the Penguins have been a decade-long success simply because they got lucky.
If you’ve heard it once, you’ve heard it a million times: The Penguins would have been a disaster, or in Kansas City, had they not gotten lucky. There’s even a term, semi-coined by that king of cynics in the hockey world, Brian Burke, called ‘The Pittsburgh model’ that implies that the most convenient road to the Stanley Cup is to lose like mad, get high picks and sit back and enjoy the ride.
Here’s the full R-rated context, from a Burke press conference in 2012 after he led the Maple Leafs to their usual spot in the standings, this coming after a reporter asked him why Toronto doesn’t follow the Pittsburgh model:
“They got a lottery,” Burke barked back. “They won a goddamned lottery, and they got the best player in the game. Is that available to me? Should we do that? Should we ask the league to have a lottery this year, and maybe we pick first?”
He paused.
“The Pittsburgh model? My ass.”
Another pause.
“They got the best player in the game in a lottery. Ray Shero’s done a good job. He’s an excellent GM and he’s a friend of mine. But I love when people talk about the Pittsburgh model. The simple fact is that they got the best player … we came in second that year in Anaheim. We got Bobby Ryan. Impact player, good player. They got Sidney Crosby in the lottery.”
Yeah, be sure that Burke’s ‘friend’ Shero really appreciated that. As I’m sure Craig Patrick, Shero’s Hall of Fame predecessor, did.
And be equally sure that Burke is far from the only one who sees the Penguins in this light, from high-ranking execs to common fans across North America. They’ll even go so far as to connect the lottery luck, in a wild leap, to tanking the 1983-84 season to land Mario Lemieux.
As if that was a bad idea.
Here are some elements to weigh when taking a less narrative-strewn look at how the Penguins have been an elite team for the past decade and how they remain that:
• They got lucky.
They absolutely did. And they got lucky not once but twice. The Crosby lottery ball was the definition of luck, given that the Penguins had only a 6 percent chance, but it happened. And the fact is, they got lucky the previous year, as well, when the draft had — in a generational rarity — two superlative talents in Alexander Ovechkin and Evgeni Malkin. The Capitals picked first, but the Penguins hardly were a loser in this.
And in fairness to the poor Oilers, not one of their aforementioned No. 1 picks ever was seen as comparable to Crosby or Malkin. McDavid might be, but even in his case, scouts are staying uncomfortably careful in going that far.
• Patrick set the stage.
I was in favor of Patrick’s firing when it occurred, largely because his methodologies lagged so badly behind the times. But no one should forget that he made a fine pick at No. 18 overall in Brooks Orpik, uncovered Game 7 hero Maxime Talbot at 234th overall, boldly traded up in the 2003 draft to No. 1 to get Marc-Andre Fleury and, the following year, would have taken Malkin over Ovechkin had he owned the No. 1 pick. He says that, and I’ve not known the man to lie. And man, talk about a bold thought.
I’ll also give credit for the Sergei Gonchar signing, which was almost universally mocked at the time because of the five-year, $25 million contract, but Gonchar became a rock for the franchise. It was an excellent use of payroll.
• Shero finished the job.
I don’t need to revisit 2008 and 2009 for modern fans. You know how Shero put the pieces together, adding Gary Roberts for guts, then Bill Guerin to push Crosby to new heights. Shero made mistakes in later years, but he molded a championship team, and I emphasize team.
Anyone who thinks that process is happenstance or luck knows nothing about what it takes to win 16 playoff games. It’s never the result of one or two players, no matter how great.
• Jim Rutherford has righted it
Whatever prompted Shero and Dan Bylsma to lose their collective way and allow the Penguins to become so soft, so spread all over the ice, the new GM has straightened it out, at least to this point. Mike Johnston’s straight-ahead, pucks-to-the-net system is an exemplary fit for this roster, and Rutherford’s acquisitions — notably the risky trade of James Neal for Patric Hornqvist — have matched that. If not for the massive injury wave, that would be even more noticeable than it is with the team now four points off the Eastern Conference lead.
• The Oilers stink.
Again. And it’s not being ignored anymore, either. Craig MacTavish, the GM who essentially handed David Perron to Rutherford a month ago, might not keep his job for much longer. If he does, he’s already made marked changes and, more striking, has sent out strong signals that his once-untouchable young treasures could be on the trade market at this deadline.
He’s seen enough.
The people of Edmonton, so passionate about how hockey, so proud of the Wayne Gretzky/Mark Messier dynasty years, have seen enough. Fans have thrown their blue and orange sweaters onto the Rexall ice in disgust.
I’ve seen enough, too, about the alleged Pittsburgh model. Look where it works and where it doesn’t.
February 4, 2015
Column: Penguins, Oilers contrasts in ‘luck’
by Dejan Kovacevic • Columns • Penguins
Edmonton fans show displeasure with their perpetually last-place team at a recent game. — GETTY
BY DEJAN KOVACEVIC
EDMONTON, Alberta — Stay away, Connor McDavid. Stay far, far away.
Because this is the place, young man, where fine young hockey players such as yourself come not to thrive but, rather, to throw away all their promise. It’s where first (overall draft pick) leads directly to worst (team in the NHL). It’s where, in three consecutive summers, the consensus premier amateur on the face of the globe arrived with all kinds of fanfare, but still the city awaits its first playoff game in eight excruciating years.
A bit harsh?
Maybe.
But here, look for yourself at the past drafting decade of these most moribund Edmonton Oilers, the Penguins’ opponent here tonight at Rexall Place, and attempt to explain being a combined 80 games under .500 the past six seasons, including 14-28-9 in the current one:
Amazing, isn’t it?
And in all seriousness, why wouldn’t McDavid, the wunderkind tearing up the Ontario Hockey League for our commonwealth’s Erie Otters and the near-unanimous choice to go No. 1 in the next draft, pull an Eric Lindros or John Elway to avoid suffering the same fate?
Go to Buffalo, kid. There’s hope there, with stable ownership and a recently upgraded front office and Ted Nolan behind the bench.
Heck, go to Carolina, Columbus or even New Jersey, all of whom could use a franchise scoring stud.
Just stay away from here, no matter which lottery ball turns up this summer.
Who could blame him?
I mean, Jordan Eberle, class of 2008, is a fine player. He has 15 goals this season, and he once topped out at 34. He’s only 24, so he can still improve.
Taylor Hall, who began the string of first overall selections, is a fine player, too. He’s more of a playmaker and registered a career-high 53 assists last season. That’s way down to 19 now, but he’s only 23, so he can still improve.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, next in the lineage, has come out of his shell with 39 points and an All-Star berth this season. He’s never topped 56 points, but he’s only 21, so he can still improve.
Nail Yakupov, the charming kid who went first at the Pittsburgh draft in 2012, had 17 goals as a rookie but hasn’t totaled that many in the two years since and has been a defensive disaster. But he’s only 21, so … oh, you know.
That’s how it goes here in the endless Edmonton cycle: It’s forever the future.
And the only reason I’m spelling all this out, graphics and all, is so that the greater hockey world can once and for all bury the ridiculous myth that the Penguins have been a decade-long success simply because they got lucky.
If you’ve heard it once, you’ve heard it a million times: The Penguins would have been a disaster, or in Kansas City, had they not gotten lucky. There’s even a term, semi-coined by that king of cynics in the hockey world, Brian Burke, called ‘The Pittsburgh model’ that implies that the most convenient road to the Stanley Cup is to lose like mad, get high picks and sit back and enjoy the ride.
Here’s the full R-rated context, from a Burke press conference in 2012 after he led the Maple Leafs to their usual spot in the standings, this coming after a reporter asked him why Toronto doesn’t follow the Pittsburgh model:
“They got a lottery,” Burke barked back. “They won a goddamned lottery, and they got the best player in the game. Is that available to me? Should we do that? Should we ask the league to have a lottery this year, and maybe we pick first?”
He paused.
“The Pittsburgh model? My ass.”
Another pause.
“They got the best player in the game in a lottery. Ray Shero’s done a good job. He’s an excellent GM and he’s a friend of mine. But I love when people talk about the Pittsburgh model. The simple fact is that they got the best player … we came in second that year in Anaheim. We got Bobby Ryan. Impact player, good player. They got Sidney Crosby in the lottery.”
Yeah, be sure that Burke’s ‘friend’ Shero really appreciated that. As I’m sure Craig Patrick, Shero’s Hall of Fame predecessor, did.
And be equally sure that Burke is far from the only one who sees the Penguins in this light, from high-ranking execs to common fans across North America. They’ll even go so far as to connect the lottery luck, in a wild leap, to tanking the 1983-84 season to land Mario Lemieux.
As if that was a bad idea.
Here are some elements to weigh when taking a less narrative-strewn look at how the Penguins have been an elite team for the past decade and how they remain that:
• They got lucky.
They absolutely did. And they got lucky not once but twice. The Crosby lottery ball was the definition of luck, given that the Penguins had only a 6 percent chance, but it happened. And the fact is, they got lucky the previous year, as well, when the draft had — in a generational rarity — two superlative talents in Alexander Ovechkin and Evgeni Malkin. The Capitals picked first, but the Penguins hardly were a loser in this.
And in fairness to the poor Oilers, not one of their aforementioned No. 1 picks ever was seen as comparable to Crosby or Malkin. McDavid might be, but even in his case, scouts are staying uncomfortably careful in going that far.
• Patrick set the stage.
I was in favor of Patrick’s firing when it occurred, largely because his methodologies lagged so badly behind the times. But no one should forget that he made a fine pick at No. 18 overall in Brooks Orpik, uncovered Game 7 hero Maxime Talbot at 234th overall, boldly traded up in the 2003 draft to No. 1 to get Marc-Andre Fleury and, the following year, would have taken Malkin over Ovechkin had he owned the No. 1 pick. He says that, and I’ve not known the man to lie. And man, talk about a bold thought.
I’ll also give credit for the Sergei Gonchar signing, which was almost universally mocked at the time because of the five-year, $25 million contract, but Gonchar became a rock for the franchise. It was an excellent use of payroll.
• Shero finished the job.
I don’t need to revisit 2008 and 2009 for modern fans. You know how Shero put the pieces together, adding Gary Roberts for guts, then Bill Guerin to push Crosby to new heights. Shero made mistakes in later years, but he molded a championship team, and I emphasize team.
Anyone who thinks that process is happenstance or luck knows nothing about what it takes to win 16 playoff games. It’s never the result of one or two players, no matter how great.
• Jim Rutherford has righted it
Whatever prompted Shero and Dan Bylsma to lose their collective way and allow the Penguins to become so soft, so spread all over the ice, the new GM has straightened it out, at least to this point. Mike Johnston’s straight-ahead, pucks-to-the-net system is an exemplary fit for this roster, and Rutherford’s acquisitions — notably the risky trade of James Neal for Patric Hornqvist — have matched that. If not for the massive injury wave, that would be even more noticeable than it is with the team now four points off the Eastern Conference lead.
• The Oilers stink.
Again. And it’s not being ignored anymore, either. Craig MacTavish, the GM who essentially handed David Perron to Rutherford a month ago, might not keep his job for much longer. If he does, he’s already made marked changes and, more striking, has sent out strong signals that his once-untouchable young treasures could be on the trade market at this deadline.
He’s seen enough.
The people of Edmonton, so passionate about how hockey, so proud of the Wayne Gretzky/Mark Messier dynasty years, have seen enough. Fans have thrown their blue and orange sweaters onto the Rexall ice in disgust.
I’ve seen enough, too, about the alleged Pittsburgh model. Look where it works and where it doesn’t.